Terrorism

CIA views South Asia as one of the regional challenges requiring it to pay increased attention due to significant changes in threat perceptions since the end of the cold war which include terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organised crime, narcotics etc. (John C. Gannon, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council of US quoted in The Asian Age 24 October 2000 p5)

New Delhi has obtained German support for "India’s initiative in framing a new comprehensive global convention to fight international terrorism". Sharing India’s concerns over cross-border terrorism, Berlin has conveyed its support to the Indian delegation during the second round of Indo-German "Strategic Dialogue" held in Berlin. The dialogue covered a range of bilateral, regional and international issues including the situation in the sub continent, nuclear disarmament, terrorism, Indo-German economic ties and reforms in The United Nations Organisation. Lalit Mansingh, the Indian Foreign Secretary leading the delegation later stated that the strategic dialogue has helped Germany appreciate India’s security concerns. "The positions taken by India and Germany on Disarmament issues may not coincide but we have been able to make them appreciate our security concerns." (The Times of India 6 November 2000, p10)

India and Russia share concern over the issues of international terrorism and has called for joint action in tackling the problem which included measures against Taliban in Afghanistan as a specific area of action to make the ruling class desist from giving support to international terrorism, drug trafficking and conform to international norms on human rights etc. Since Russia is facing separatist movement in Chechnya and Pakistan is the only country which has direct access to the Taliban, Moscow’s plan of action includes persuading Islamabad and a meeting of the Interior ministers of Russia, Pakistan and Central Asian countries to discuss the issue of Afghanistan. New Delhi’s interest in the issues is related to cross border terrorism particularly in the Kashmir Valley. The Joint Working Group on Afghanistan to be co-chaired by the Indian Foreign Secretary and Russian First Foreign Minister is being seen as an important step towards cooperation on the matters relating to terrorism, drug trafficking etc. in the context of Afghanistan and the support that Taliban receives from Pakistan. Besides Russia, India has set up groups to cooperate against terrorism with the United Kingdom and the US. International terrorism by terrorist trained in camps run by the Taliban in Afghanistan has now become a growing threat not only in Kashmir and Chechnya and central Asian nations but also in other parts of the world. (The Asian Age 19 November 2000 p2 and 24 November 2000 p3)

Israel views India as a responsible giant and endorses its claim for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Appreciating India’s prudent understanding of the crisis situation in West Asia Israel has reiterated its common stand on the issue of cross border terrorism and Tel Aviv’s willingness to share its experience in combating the same. Discounting the perception in certain sections that growing relations between India and Israel can destabilise the South Asian region as merely "inventive theories", the new Ambassador to New Delhi said "We are not enemies of Pakistan. We are not against having diplomatic relations with Pakistan if they are ready". (The Asian Age 24 October 2000 p3)

In a significant development United States and Russia are teaming up to move the Security Council for imposing an arms embargo on the Taliban militia after investigators linked international terrorist Osamba bin Laden to bombing of American destroyer USS Cole. (The Asian Age 20 November 2000 p4).

The US has expressed concern over a "possible Talibanisation of Pakistan" as the vicious cocktail of terrorism, drug trafficking and human rights abuses gripping Afghanistan spills over into it placing the country "at risk" and "have urged Pakistan to use its influence with the Taliban to turn these things around". Karl Inderfurth, the Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia said that the US is concerned that in Afghanistan "terrorist training is underway" and those "trained are making their way into Central Asia, into India, into Pakistan and Russia" (The Times of India 5 November 2000, p10).

Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan Army Chief, Lt. General Lionel Balagalle is of the opinion that the four year long operations by the Indian peace keeping Force in Sri Lanka did weaken the LTTE to a great extent. "LTTE was weakened to a great extent having suffered at the hands of IPKF." But the rebel outfit was supplied with weapons by the Premadasa government to send the IPKF out. (The Asian Age 6 November 2000 p4).

Norwegian envoy, Eric Solheim met Tamil separatist leader Velupillai Prabhakaran even as the Sri Lankan government denied any role in it. Solheim said that he went at the invitation of the LTTE who wanted the negotiators see "conditions in the Wanni where life is difficult and harsh". There was no immediate reaction to Solheim’s account that Prabhakaran is keen to begin unconditional peace negotiations with the government and interested in a negotiated political settlement to the demand for a separate Tamil homeland. (The Asian Age 5 November 2000 p4). Solheim met and beefed President Kumartunga and head of main opposition United National Party, Ranil Wickremsinghe and later the Indian High Commissioner before departing for Oslo. Meanwhile, nationalist parties and the pro Marxist People’s Liberation Front have criticised the Norwegian peace initiatives putting question marks on the prospects of the peace process. (The Times of India 6 November 2000, p10). In another development Sri Lanka has sought India’s cooperation on anti-LTTE operations in the shape of more training courses for its officers and sailors in Indian naval establishments. For over a decade the Indian navy and Coast Guard have been engaged in Operation Swan, an intensive patrolling exercise aimed at detecting and preventing LTTE activities in the Palk Strait. (The Times of India 8 November 2000, p7).

Defence and Nuclear Issues

Indian Atomic Energy Commission chairman, R.Chidambaram told a meeting of scientists at Bhaba Atomic Research Center (BARC) that "India is now a nuclear weapon state thanks to the vast multi- disciplinary capabilities which the department of Atomic Energy has built up deliberately and with fore thought over the years. The five carefully planned and completely successful nuclear weapon tests at Pokharan on May 11 and 13 1998 and confirmation of design yields by seismic, radiochemical and other studies carried out by BARC gave us the capability to design and fabricate weapons ranging from low yield to around 200 kilotons

After taking over office, the Indian Chief of Army Staff, General S. Padmanabhan has remarked that his is to "fine tune" India’s nuclear strategy, doctrine and tactics. "India’s military is finally realising the urgency to place firm nuclear weapon controls in place" But skepticism still remains on overall ignorance of nuclear issues like employment strategy, minimum nuclear deterrence as well as the escalation dynamics of a pre-emptive strike". (The Asian Age 8 November 2000 p3).

Britain And India has put a time frame on resumption of nuclear diplomacy disrupted by Indian Tests of May 1998 and plan to coordinate their efforts at the conference on nuclear disarmament in Geneva. This was the outcome of the talks between the British Foreign Secretary and his Indian counterpart. Much depends on Pakistan’s revised stand on CTBT and the new administration at Washington. There appears to be a greater understanding of India’s sensitivities and strategic compulsions among British nuclear disarmament negotiators. A new dimension may be added if Islamabad were to reverse its policy and decide to sign CTBT. The possibility of India resisting pressure to follow suit is not discounted given New Delhi’s known stand against the Western efforts to equate India with Pakistan on the issue. (The Times of India 18 November 2000, p10).

As a reward for the country signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty and ratification of the CTBT on the eve of US president Clinton’s South Asian visit, Bangladesh has now received US financial and technical assistance for its Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant as per an agreement to this effect signed in Washington (The Asian Age 19 November 2000 p4).

The Friday Times quoting strategic analysts have put a stockpile of 720 kg of weapons grade uranium enough for 36 nuclear weapons at the disposal of Islamabad. Its report about delivery systems however remains uncertain though the Daily has reported about Pakistan developing and testing "nuclear weapons" based on a Chinese design that was intended for delivery by an intermediate range missile. Pakistan’s present nuclear arsenal includes weapons designed for delivery using A-5 phantom aircraft. Its F-16 aircraft have also practiced the toss-bombing technique that can be used for nuclear weapons delivery. In addition, Pakistan has developed nuclear capable missile delivery systems namely Shaeen, Ghauri and Ghaznavi with the help of North Korea. The Daily has a word of advice for the Islamabad’s ruling class as well. "Bombs neither attract money nor respect. Irresponsibility merely attracts rogue state status" (UNI in The Asian Age 19 November 2000 p4).

The increasing defence cooperation between India and France is evident from the scheduled International Fleet Review to be held at Mumbai between February 15 and 19 2001 in which French nuclear attack submarine "Pearle" will take part along with destroyer "Dupleux" as per Rear Admiral Herve Giraud, Commanding Officer of the French naval forces in the Indian Ocean. Rear Admiral said France’s response to Indian nuclear tests of 1998 was positive as a legitimate exercise. "The nuclear tests have given your country a different place in the world and India’s relationship with different countries is also on a different plane now. You have all the parameters of power". On the cards are the possibility of production of the French Scorpene submarines at the Mazagaon Docks and once this deal is clinched "it will help furthering military cooperation between both the countries". Besides France is exploring possibility of collaborating with India in the area of high altitude warfare. (The Times of India 14 November 2000, p2).

South East Asia

The Gang-Mekong Swarnabhoomi Project involving India, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Burma seeks to re-establish historical linkages between the Gang and Mekong regions as well as strengthen regional cooperation in the fields of tourism, education and culture with provisions for improved communication links. For New Delhi, the launching of the project assumes significance as it is seen in the light of India’s growing relations with ASEAN. (The Asian Age 6 November 2000 p3).

The visit to India of General Maung Aye, Vice-chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) of Myanmar at the instance of the Indian Vice President is one more instance of India’s pro-active diplomacy of positive engagement in South Asia. The move seems ironic in the background of India’s campaign for democracy in the aftermath of military coup in Pakistan but Indian diplomats brush aside the charges of double standards in the best interests of the country. " We weighed all the pros and cons, but in international relations we have to take into account our national interest" said the India Home Minister. It is understood that India has privately conveyed to the Myanmar military regime about its concerns involving Aung San Suu Kyi. "We found it better to talk quietly about these issues rather than make loud protests"… "We as a country are committed to democracy. We are also for non-interference in the internal matters of other countries." G. Parthasarathy, former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar puts policy priorities clear, "look at what Burmese are doing for us. Myanmar borders four of our most sensitive states- Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal and Nagaland- and three of these have separatist problems. The Burmese armed forces are cooperating with us to deal with the insurgents. Myanmar helps our border management and is a member of ASEAN. When all East Asia deals with Myanmar, and India is a dialogue partner of ASEAN, it is only right that we too engage with our closest neighbor." India has been getting the cooperation of the Burmese army in dealing with the United Liberation of Asom, the Khaplang faction in the NSCN, the Meiti insurgents and other armed groups, which use Myanmar territory. Yangaon has told New Delhi that it has destroyed five camps belonging to Naga insurgents and expected to pursue more. Besides China’s increasing engagement with the ruling military junta has not been easy for India with reports of China upgrading its radar facilities in the Coco Islands. (The Times of India 17 November 2000 p5). India has long been suspicious of China’s increasing naval presence in Myanmar and was apprehensive of facilities granted to China being used for naval surveillance against India. It was even felt that China could use the Coco Islands as missile pads against specific Indian targets. However, Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung sought to allay Indian apprehensions. "I want to tell the Indian public that any island in my country, or Myanmar’s soil will not be used as a military base by any power against India" (The Times of India 23 November 2000 p11)

India is Myanmar’s largest export market accounting for 25 percent of its total exports. With its status as ASEAN member, Myanmar is pitched as India’s gateway to South Asian economic bloc The recent Gang-Mekong initiative also testifies to India’s determined intent to engage the region. The Present visit which cements the gap in high level contacts will allow Myanmar to be seen in its own identity and not as part of the Chinese shadow. (The Myanmar Matrix, Back on the Road to Mandalay; C Uday Bhaskar; The Times of India 26 November 2000 p12)

Kashmir - Peace Gets a Second Chance

In a major policy initiative, the New Delhi government announced a unilateral cease-fire against militants for the month of Ramzan. The decision, according to the Indian Prime Minister is a continuation of earlier efforts to normalise situation in the Valley so that peace talks can be held with all those willing to take part. The Prime Minister hoped that the people will appreciate this move and all violence in the state and infiltration across the Line of Control and the international border will cease. Asserting that India has always stood for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue, he said that events of the past two years "have further underscored India’s credential for peace." (The Asian Age 20 November 2000 p1-2).

Most of the militant organisations however rejected India’s cease-fire offer with some militant groups promising a violent Ramzan for the valley. The Lashkar-e-Tayyaba denounced the cease-fire as a "drama" and "part of the fraud of Indian politics." " Jihad is a sacred mission and we will continue it in Ramzan" (The Asian Age 21 November 2000 p1).

While the world has responded well to the Indian Government’s offer of cease-fire for which it still stands committed inspite of expected provocation in the shape of indiscriminate killings that followed, the people in the Kashmir valley will anxiously wait for the success of the initiative after the failure last round. (See "A Lost Chance for Peace" in South Asian News Brief August- September Edition / more details in the next edition)

Compiled by

Arabinda Acharya